On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth
This study analyses the common trends between expectation indicators of producers of the manufacturing sector in Uruguay and its linkage with economic growth. To this end, four expectation indicators are constructed from qualitative data obtained using surveys collected by the “Cámara de Industrias...
I tiakina i:
| Kaituhi matua: | |
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| Ētahi atu kaituhi: | , |
| Hōputu: | article |
| Reo: | Ingarihi |
| I whakaputaina: |
2021
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| Ngā marau: | |
| Urunga tuihono: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/33385 |
| Ngā Tūtohu: |
Kāore He Tūtohu, Me noho koe te mea tuatahi ki te tūtohu i tēnei pūkete!
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| _version_ | 1868890102505144320 |
|---|---|
| author | Brida, Juan Gabriel |
| author2 | Lanzilotta, Bibiana Rosich, Lucía |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_browse | Brida, Juan Gabriel Lanzilotta, Bibiana Rosich, Lucía |
| author_facet | Brida, Juan Gabriel Lanzilotta, Bibiana Rosich, Lucía |
| author_role | author |
| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Brida Juan Gabriel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración Lanzilotta Bibiana, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía Rosich Lucía, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración |
| dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv | Uruguay |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Brida, Juan Gabriel Lanzilotta, Bibiana Rosich, Lucía |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2021 2022-08-29T12:13:39Z 2022-08-29T12:13:39Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | 14 p. application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | BRIDA, Juan Gabriel, LANZILOTTA, Bibiana y ROSICH, Lucia I Rosich. ''On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth''. [en línea ]. Economics Bulletin, 2021, vol. 41 n°. 3, pp.1970-1982 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/33385 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Economics Bulletin, vol. 41, n°3, pp.1970-1982 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Sentiment indicators Nonlinear cointegration Multivariate Structural Models GDP forecasting Common factors Agents' expectations MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO EXPORTADORES |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | This study analyses the common trends between expectation indicators of producers of the manufacturing sector in Uruguay and its linkage with economic growth. To this end, four expectation indicators are constructed from qualitative data obtained using surveys collected by the “Cámara de Industrias del Uruguay” (CIU) for the period 1998- 2017. Common trends are identified by estimating Multivariate Structural Models on the expectations indicators (categorized in four groups according to the firm specialization and international insertion). Its dynamical linkage with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is analyzed by applying non-parametric cointegration and causality tests. Results give evidence of bidirectional causality between expectations and GDP growth in the long, while in the short-run causality goes uniquely from the exporters' sentiment indicator trend to the GDP growth. The expectation trend of the more tradable and exposed to international competition sectors (exporter industries) is the one that drives overall industrials' expectations in Uruguay. More importantly, we cannot reject nonlinearity in the long-run relationship between the underlying trend of exporters' expectations and Uruguayan GDP growth, which shows that it may be a useful predictor of GDP growth provided that this nonlinearity is taken into account. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | anni_79d7fcb352d04c6fada71bab92efb983 |
| identifier_str_mv | BRIDA, Juan Gabriel, LANZILOTTA, Bibiana y ROSICH, Lucia I Rosich. ''On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth''. [en línea ]. Economics Bulletin, 2021, vol. 41 n°. 3, pp.1970-1982 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | anni |
| network_name_str | oai-lr-anni |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/33385 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| spelling | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growthBrida, Juan GabrielLanzilotta, BibianaRosich, LucíaSentiment indicatorsNonlinear cointegrationMultivariate Structural ModelsGDP forecastingCommon factorsAgents' expectationsMODELOS ECONOMETRICOSCRECIMIENTO ECONOMICOEXPORTADORESThis study analyses the common trends between expectation indicators of producers of the manufacturing sector in Uruguay and its linkage with economic growth. To this end, four expectation indicators are constructed from qualitative data obtained using surveys collected by the “Cámara de Industrias del Uruguay” (CIU) for the period 1998- 2017. Common trends are identified by estimating Multivariate Structural Models on the expectations indicators (categorized in four groups according to the firm specialization and international insertion). Its dynamical linkage with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is analyzed by applying non-parametric cointegration and causality tests. Results give evidence of bidirectional causality between expectations and GDP growth in the long, while in the short-run causality goes uniquely from the exporters' sentiment indicator trend to the GDP growth. The expectation trend of the more tradable and exposed to international competition sectors (exporter industries) is the one that drives overall industrials' expectations in Uruguay. More importantly, we cannot reject nonlinearity in the long-run relationship between the underlying trend of exporters' expectations and Uruguayan GDP growth, which shows that it may be a useful predictor of GDP growth provided that this nonlinearity is taken into account.Brida Juan Gabriel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de AdministraciónLanzilotta Bibiana, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de EconomíaRosich Lucía, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración2022-08-29T12:13:39Z2022-08-29T12:13:39Z2021Artículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion14 p.application/pdfBRIDA, Juan Gabriel, LANZILOTTA, Bibiana y ROSICH, Lucia I Rosich. ''On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth''. [en línea ]. Economics Bulletin, 2021, vol. 41 n°. 3, pp.1970-1982https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/33385reponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaenengEconomics Bulletin, vol. 41, n°3, pp.1970-1982UruguayLas obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/333852026-04-14T10:40:18Z |
| spellingShingle | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth Brida, Juan Gabriel Sentiment indicators Nonlinear cointegration Multivariate Structural Models GDP forecasting Common factors Agents' expectations MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO EXPORTADORES |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth |
| title_full | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth |
| title_fullStr | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth |
| title_short | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth |
| title_sort | On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth |
| topic | Sentiment indicators Nonlinear cointegration Multivariate Structural Models GDP forecasting Common factors Agents' expectations MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO EXPORTADORES |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/33385 |