Wind gust forecast, in support of wind energy
Recently, a number of countries have taken new initiatives with regard to energy technology applications related to the installation of wind turbines, which convert the kinetic energy of the wind into electric power to supply electricity systems. Uruguay, in particular, is one of the countries at th...
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| Autor principal: | |
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| Formato: | doctoralThesis |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Publicado em: |
2017
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/22462 |
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| Resumo: | Recently, a number of countries have taken new initiatives with regard to energy technology applications related to the installation of wind turbines, which convert the kinetic energy of the wind into electric power to supply electricity systems. Uruguay, in particular, is one of the countries at the forefront of new energy technology applications; currently, the country's relative wind power participation rate is one of the highest in the world. This reality implies the need for a better understanding of the physical phenomena related to wind in the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Given the need to quantify wind resources for the development wind farms, the number of towers collecting new observational data in Uruguay has increased. These towers are typically located 100 meters above ground level (AGL). The present work was possible due the assistance provided by the National Electric Company of Uruguay (UTE), which provided access to wind data. The aim of this work was to develop a wind gust parametrization model at wind turbine height, based on numerical simulation of a mesoscale model. This thesis contains results of numerical simulations run on the Cluster FING-UdelaR, Unipampa, and SENAI CIMATEC cluster Yemoja. Wind gusts are relevant to di erent wind engineering applications. Therefore, development of an operational wind forecast model could help manage electrical systems with relatively high levels of wind power participation, such as those in Uruguay, which has a wind power participation of 35 %. It was observed that both gust magnitude and factors (the ratio of gusts to mean wind speed) increased as the atmosphere became less stable, and the results indicated an asymptotic gust factor value of 1.33. A characteristic observed bulk Richardson number Ri was identi ed for gusty cases -0.2 < Ri < 0 in the rst 100 meters AGL. All PBL schemes run in the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model under-predict the shear in the rst 100 m for gusty cases when observed gust g > 15m=s. The forecast Ri is over-predict for all PBL schemes. For all PBL schemes, the established, theory-based gust parameterizations based on mean velocity and friction velocity data from the ECMWF model provided reasonable forecasts of the gusts at hub wind turbine height (100 m) with increasing skill as the grid resolution was increased. We propose a gust parameterization (GP) that includes a discrimination of stability computing OT/Oz, and discrimination of gusty cases based on Ri, computing the velocity at the top of the PBL VMAX as an input in the parameterization. The GP shows better performance in the gross domain (12 km). Increased mean and gust values were forecast with increasing horizontal grid resolution, and it was observed that skill at forecasting gusty cases increased with increasing grid resolution. Analysis of time intervals for forecast alarms for gusty cases showed an increase in true alarms and a decrease in false alarms when the time interval increased. The proposed GP can be useful in an operational model because of better skill in gross domain, wich means, could be implemented with lower computational cost. This work did not evaluate the forecast horizon, and can be considered as providing better con guration relative to other models. If an operational model is to be implemented, further analysis of the time horizon and impact on skill while working with ensembles need to be computed. |
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