How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
Rossby wave packets (RWPs), are atmospheric perturbations linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extratropical cyclone development and other equally destructive phenomena. Under certain circumstances, these packets can last from several days to 2–3 weeks in the atmosph...
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| Format: | article |
| Language: | English |
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2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42229 |
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| _version_ | 1868890014336679936 |
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| author | Pérez, Iago |
| author2 | Barreiro, Marcelo |
| author2_role | author |
| author_browse | Barreiro, Marcelo Pérez, Iago |
| author_facet | Pérez, Iago Barreiro, Marcelo |
| author_role | author |
| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Pérez Iago, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Pérez, Iago Barreiro, Marcelo |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2023 2024-01-23T18:25:49Z 2024-01-23T18:25:49Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | 11 h. application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | Pérez, I y Barreiro, M. "How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?". Atmospheric Science Letters. [en línea] 2023, 24(10): e1175. 11 h. DOI: 10.1002/asl.1175 1530-261X https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42229 10.1002/asl.1175 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Royal Meteorological Society |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Atmospheric Science Letters, 2023, 24(10): e1175 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | IAP-CAS MJO NCEP Rossby wave packets S2S |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | Rossby wave packets (RWPs), are atmospheric perturbations linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extratropical cyclone development and other equally destructive phenomena. Under certain circumstances, these packets can last from several days to 2–3 weeks in the atmosphere. Therefore, forecast models should be able to correctly predict their formation and development to enhance extreme weather events prediction from 10 to 30 days in advance. In this study, we assess whether the NCEP and IAP-CAS subseasonal forecast models can predict the evolution of observed RWPs that last more than 8 days (long-lived RWPs or LLRWPs) during southern hemisphere summer. Results show that the NCEP (IAP-CAS) model forecasts LLRWPs that appear eastward (westward) from the observed LLRWPs. Both models forecasted LLRWPs that rapidly lose energy after the 6th–7th lead day of simulation, which could limit LLRWPs prediction to the synoptic time scale. Additionally, both models better forecast LLRWPs when the packets manifest in the eastern Pacific. Southern Annular mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) do not seem to exert a large influence in the representation of LLRWPs. Nevertheless, during the best LLRWPs forecasts, the observed circulation anomalies signal the manifestation of negative SAM events. In contrast, both forecast models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs when a blocking situation develops to the South of Australia. Lastly, an inactive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) seems to favor the development of accurate LLRWPs forecasts, whereas during phases 3, 5 in the NCEP model and 3, 8 for IAP-CAS, the models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | anni_3c7ca3c8ba907dcdd16b9984d9b34ffc |
| identifier_str_mv | Pérez, I y Barreiro, M. "How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?". Atmospheric Science Letters. [en línea] 2023, 24(10): e1175. 11 h. DOI: 10.1002/asl.1175 1530-261X 10.1002/asl.1175 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | anni |
| network_name_str | oai-lr-anni |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/42229 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Royal Meteorological Society |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| spelling | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?Pérez, IagoBarreiro, MarceloIAP-CASMJONCEPRossby wave packetsS2SRossby wave packets (RWPs), are atmospheric perturbations linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extratropical cyclone development and other equally destructive phenomena. Under certain circumstances, these packets can last from several days to 2–3 weeks in the atmosphere. Therefore, forecast models should be able to correctly predict their formation and development to enhance extreme weather events prediction from 10 to 30 days in advance. In this study, we assess whether the NCEP and IAP-CAS subseasonal forecast models can predict the evolution of observed RWPs that last more than 8 days (long-lived RWPs or LLRWPs) during southern hemisphere summer. Results show that the NCEP (IAP-CAS) model forecasts LLRWPs that appear eastward (westward) from the observed LLRWPs. Both models forecasted LLRWPs that rapidly lose energy after the 6th–7th lead day of simulation, which could limit LLRWPs prediction to the synoptic time scale. Additionally, both models better forecast LLRWPs when the packets manifest in the eastern Pacific. Southern Annular mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) do not seem to exert a large influence in the representation of LLRWPs. Nevertheless, during the best LLRWPs forecasts, the observed circulation anomalies signal the manifestation of negative SAM events. In contrast, both forecast models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs when a blocking situation develops to the South of Australia. Lastly, an inactive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) seems to favor the development of accurate LLRWPs forecasts, whereas during phases 3, 5 in the NCEP model and 3, 8 for IAP-CAS, the models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs.Royal Meteorological SocietyPérez Iago, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2024-01-23T18:25:49Z2024-01-23T18:25:49Z2023Artículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion11 h.application/pdfPérez, I y Barreiro, M. "How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?". Atmospheric Science Letters. [en línea] 2023, 24(10): e1175. 11 h. DOI: 10.1002/asl.11751530-261Xhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4222910.1002/asl.1175reponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaenengAtmospheric Science Letters, 2023, 24(10): e1175Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/422292026-04-14T10:10:27Z |
| spellingShingle | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? Pérez, Iago IAP-CAS MJO NCEP Rossby wave packets S2S |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? |
| title_full | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? |
| title_fullStr | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? |
| title_full_unstemmed | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? |
| title_short | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? |
| title_sort | How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer? |
| topic | IAP-CAS MJO NCEP Rossby wave packets S2S |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42229 |